February 20, 2025

‘CITY-KILLER’ ASTEROID IMPACT ODDS NOW 1 IN 67 

Breathe a sigh of relief. Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 98.5% chance of missing Earth in 2032.

If you’ve been worrying about reports of a possible asteroid impact in 2032, we have very good news! NASA has dropped the probability of an impact from asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67.

NASA announced the reduced impact risk on its X feed at around 5:00 p.m. EST (2200 GMT) on Wednesday (Feb. 19). The updated assessment was based on new orbital data for the asteroid, which is estimated to be around 180 feet (55 meters) wide, collected overnight between the Feb. 18 and Feb. 19.

The radical drop in impact risk for 2024 YR4 came just a day after its risk factor was increased to 1 in 32 or 3.1%. This increase saw 2024 YR4 become the most risky asteroid in the history of NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Risk Table was introduced.

Source: NASA lowers impact risk of ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4 to 1 in 67 (phew!)

Leave a Reply