April 15, 2026

California’s gasoline system is barreling toward a squeeze: inventories are already near five-year lows, refinery output is sliding after closures, and a sharp drop in Asian imports hasn’t even fully landed yet because tankers are still crossing the Pacific. With days’ supply down to roughly 9 to 10 and modeling pointing to inventories 15% to 30% below normal, analysts warn the real pain is still ahead — by May, California could face physical shortages and higher pump prices, with the state’s weak fuel buffer offering almost no cushion.

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